Gaming: College Pigskin Prognostications
NCAA Football Betting Lines
09/03/2010 -
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - After months of waiting, the 2010 college
football season is ready to kick off its first barrage of Saturday games, and
with that comes the unveiling of my inaugural Top 12, followed by each club's
power ratings.
1-T) Boise State and Ohio State, 100.5; 3-T) Oklahoma and Alabama, 100; 5)
Florida, 99.5; 6) Texas, 99; 7) Nebraska, 98.5; 8-T) Wisconsin and Iowa, 98;
10-T) TCU and Oregon, 97.5; 12) LSU, 96.5
For comparison purposes, here were last year's final Top 10 numbers:
1) Alabama, 108; 2) Florida, 106; 3) Texas, 105.5; 4) TCU, 103.5; 5) Oklahoma,
103; 6) Virginia Tech, 102; 7) Boise State, 101.5; 8-T) Nebraska and Ohio
State, 100; 10) Oregon, 98
2009 ATS RECORD
Yours truly went 5-3 during last year's bowl campaign for a final 2009 ATS
total of 116-94-2, good for 55 percent.
This season I will continue highlighting the top plays on a weekly basis,
especially since those games with extensive write-ups went 25-8-1 between Oct.
1 and the end of the season. I will also try to maintain that 75 percent
winning percentage in 2010.
For those reading this column for the first time, I break down my picks into
four classifications. The Five-Star plays are those games where my key
selections and my "Power Numbers" match. The Three-Star choices are my
personal picks, while the Two-Star plays are the "power number" picks -- games
with at least a five-point differential between my line and the actual line.
Finally, the One-Star plays are my personal secondary selections.
Last season's Five-Star totals wound up at 5-4 (56 percent). The Three-Star
choices went 45-24-1 (65 percent), while the Two-Star plays finished at
35-31-1 (53 percent). The One-Star picks ended at 31-35 (47 percent).
So far in 2010, the overall record stands at 1-0-1 as Hawaii (Two-Star)
covered against USC and Utah (Three-Star) pushed versus Pittsburgh.
THE LONE FIVE-STAR PLAY
Auburn hosts Arkansas State in its opener this Saturday but one wonders how
much the Tigers have prepared for the Red Wolves, especially with a huge
conference road game just five days later against Mississippi State.
There is no doubt Auburn will be much improved this season after going 3-5 in
SEC play last year. However, do not sell Arkansas State short. The Red Wolves
have covered at least one game per season over the last seven years versus a
BCS opponent, including a three-point SU loss at Iowa in '09, a victory over
Texas A&M in '08, and an eight-point SU loss at Texas in '07. Arkansas State's
defense will keep this one much closer than the line suggests.
Take the Red Wolves plus the points.
THREE-STAR PLAYS
Oklahoma State hosts Washington State and, surprisingly, the Cowboys are not
favored by at least 20 points. The line is extremely low at 17 considering the
Cougars still have major question marks on defense.
It is true Oklahoma State will not be one of the top teams in the Big 12 this
season but the Cowboys will still put points on the scoreboard. Defensively,
they will struggle with just four returning starters. Still, we are talking
Washington State -- not Troy, Tulsa and Texas A&M, the next three opponents
that come to Stillwater.
Take Oklahoma State minus the points.
Michigan State and Western Michigan hooked up last Nov. 7 and the Spartans
rolled to a 49-14 victory. They also outgained the Broncos by close to 400
yards. Not much has changed since as Michigan State returns the bulk of its
skill position players and four of its top five tacklers. On the other side,
Western Michigan is without its all-time career passing leader in Tim Hiller
and its third all-time leading rusher in Brandon West. The defense loses its
top two tacklers along with both starting cornerbacks.
Take Michigan State minus the points.
TWO-STAR PICKS
Three underdogs top the Two-Star choices in week one. Go with Purdue (at Notre
Dame), Cincinnati (at Fresno State), and Maryland (versus Navy).
ONE-STAR SELECTIONS
Take Toledo (against Arizona) on Friday night and follow that up with
Washington plus the points (at BYU), and Boise State on Monday night (against
Virginia Tech).
<< Clijsters rolls into U.S. Open fourth round
Flushing Meadows, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Defending champion Kim Clijsters was a
third-round winner Friday at the U.S. Open.
The second-seeded Belgian dropped the first three games of her match against
27th-seeded Czech Petra Kvitova, but
<< Fire forward McBride to retire after season
Chicago, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Chicago Fire forward Brian McBride will retire
at the end of the 2010 season, the Major League Soccer team announced on
Friday.
"Brian's retirement is a bittersweet moment for the Fire, Major League Soc
<< Report: Broncos' LenDale White out for season
Denver, CO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Denver Broncos running back LenDale White is
reportedly out for the season with a torn Achilles tendon.
The Denver Post cited an NFL source in its report on Friday.
White was hurt during the second quarter
<< Jimenez shoots 61 for European Masters lead
Crans Montana, Switzerland (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Five days after locking down his
Ryder Cup spot, Miguel Angel Jimenez came close to locking down a piece of
golf history.
Jimenez flirted with a 59 Friday during the second round of the European
<< Morgan gets eight games, Volstad six after Nats/Marlins brawl
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Washington Nationals outfielder Nyjer Morgan
was suspended for eight games and Florida Marlins pitcher Chris Volstad was
given a six-game penalty for their roles in Wednesday's benches-clearing
inciden
Report: Lions' Suh fined for hit on Delhomme >>
Detroit, MI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Detroit Lions rookie defensive tackle Ndamukong
Suh has reportedly been fined for his hit on Cleveland Browns quarterback Jake
Delhomme.
According to the Detroit Free Press, Suh, the second pick in April's d
Dallas aiming to extend unbeaten run with TFC coming to town >>
Frisco, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - FC Dallas set a record last weekend after
earning a scoreless draw at Columbus, going 10 straight Major League Soccer
road fixtures without a loss.
On Saturday, the Hoops (9-2-10), one of the league'
Phillies reinstate Gload from DL >>
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Philadelphia Phillies have reinstated
outfielder/first baseman Ross Gload from the 15-day disabled list.
Gload was placed on the DL with a right groin strain on August 21, retroactive
to August 19. He
D.C. United, Columbus clash again in league play >>
Washington, D.C. (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - D.C. United interim coach Ben Olsen called
Wednesday's loss to the Columbus Crew in the U.S. Open Cup semifinals "cruel,"
but now the struggling squad will try to bounce back in Major League Soccer on
Saturda
Hurricane Earl forces Boston-Chicago postponement >>
Boston, MA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Friday's contest between the Chicago White Sox
and Boston Red Sox was rained out.
The threat of Hurricane Earl heading toward Boston forced officials to make
the early postponement and reschedule the con
SPORTS BETTING - Tennis is an underrated and under-utilized bettors' sport.
Ten years ago, at just about this time, I called Alan Boston in Vegas and left him a voicemail that went something like this (abridged version): "Hey Alan, Chad Millman from ESPN The Magazine calling. I want to do a book about wise guys, you in?"
A couple weeks later I got a message back (abridged version): "I don't know, maybe," Boston said. "Call me and we'll talk about it. But not later today. I got $1,000 on Andre Agassi to win the French Open at 40-1, and he's in the finals."
Here's what happened next (abridged version): Agassi won his tourney. Boston won his $40,000. I wrote sportsbook.
In the ten years since, how much has been wagered on the big-time tennis events? Put it this way: The Nevada Gaming Commission doesn't even track the number year by year because it's so small.
"Tennis makes up about one-tenth of one percent of our take," says Lucky's bookmaking boss Jimmy Vaccaro. "The last big golf major we probably had $100,000 worth of bets. In tennis, we might have written two big tickets."
Tennis' lack of popularity amongst the American bettoratti is no surprise, really. For starters, the biggest sports betting holidays -- the Super Bowl, the NCAA tourney -- are must see TV. People, at least the degenerates I know, plan vacations around watching those events in Vegas sports books.
But Wimbledon? Doesn't exactly reel in the whales. "Seriously, it's the nuts as an event," says Boston. "But who even knows when it's on?"
Here's another reason that helps explain why golf gets traction, something I call "The Bubbe Theory." My Bubbe is pushing 95 and has cataracts so bad that, to her, even the most crystalline Chicago day is mostly cloudy. But she still listens to the Cubs games, and she still calls me in a fit if she disagrees with something Rick Telander writes in the Chicago Sun Times. She's a sports fan. If she doesn't know you, you're just filling a niche. And niche players, even historically good ones like Roger and Raf, don't drive betting volume. Only the highest profile names attract square money, which inflates wagering totals like a shot of saline to the lips. Bubbe, and the public, loved Agassi, tennis' last cross-the-rubicon, mainstream draw. She also has a crush on Tiger. She's given me standing orders to put a sawbuck on the big cat whenever I walk through a sports book (or mistakenly tap into one via my Internet machine.) That explains why the Masters is getting $100K in action at some books while the four tennis majors might not get that combined this year.
This isn't a case of tennis being a difficult sport to bet. In fact, in Europe, it's probably the second most popular sport for gambling after soccer. Granted, as the WSJ football betting last week and The Mag's Shaun Assael examined in even greater depth last year, that might be because gamblers across the pond see it as an easy game to fix. But it could also be because, over there it holds the kind of sway the big two do over here.
Street corners in Spain are peppered with public courts and kids doing their best Raffy impressions. In some war torn parts of Eastern Europe poverty-stricken kids view tennis as an escape route, like football or basketball here. A couple years ago The Mag's Lindsay Berra wrote a great piece about Belgrade's Jelena Jankovic, Ana Ivanovic and Novak Djokovic. They learned the game as kids while bombs were raining down on their homeland. They practiced in drained swimming pools. Not exactly Nick Bolletierri conditions.
In the United States, casual fans think tennis is played four times a year. But on the tightly packed European continent, national interest in homegrown talent runs deep every weekend. Of the ATP's current top 20 players, only two, tennis betting and James Blake, are American. Fourteen are from Europe, representing six different countries.
No wonder fans from Lisbon to Bhudapest get jacked up for the net game, whether it's Wimbledon or a low-level tourney like the Estoril Open in Portugal (congrats to Spain's Albert Montanes for winning that one, btw). Chances are good that someone representing their flag will not only be playing, but have a shot at winning.
And that's all any bettor can ask for.
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Bonds nearly hits HR 751, SF wins
4 and drove in
a pair of runs, and Barry Bonds nearly hit homer No. 751 as San Francisco beat
1, in the middle contest of three at AT&T Park.
6) allowed five hits and one run over 6 2/3 innings, fanning
eight and walking three.
game slide.
Bonds, who came within five homers of Hank Aaron's record on Friday, went
1 with three walks, an RBI double and scored twice. The double ...
read more
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