Hot-shooting Celtics rout Pistons
Basketball Betting Lines
03/15/2010 -
Boston, MA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Paul Pierce was one of three Boston players to
record 15 points and the Celtics surged to a big halftime lead before beating
the short-handed Detroit Pistons, 119-93, at TD Garden.
Ray Allen and Michael Finley also scored 15 as the Celtics won for the sixth
time in nine games and bounced back from an 11-point loss at Cleveland Sunday
afternoon.
Kevin Garnett notched 14 points and eight rebounds, while Glen Davis scored 13
for the Celtics, who shot 62.2 percent from the field. That included an
incredible 13-of-15 effort in the fourth quarter.
Boston, which also received 11 points from Kendrick Perkins and Marquis
Daniels, is a half-game behind idle Atlanta for the third-best record in the
Eastern Conference.
Detroit center Ben Wallace missed his seventh straight game due to a sore
right knee. The team, which is also playing without Rodney Stuckey, lost
forward Tayshaun Prince to a back injury in the first quarter.
Will Bynum had 16 points and seven assists for Detroit, which lost for the
ninth time in 11 games. Jason Maxiell chipped in 11 points and 10 rebounds for
the Pistons, who have dropped seven in a row on the road.
With 4:53 remaining in the opening quarter, Prince went to the hoop and
collided with Perkins. As he was falling down, Prince's back hit the knee of
Maxiell. Prince remained on his stomach in obvious pain for a few minutes
before finally being helped to his feet and to the locker room. He did not
return to the game.
The Celtics sparkled with a 16-1 burst in the first quarter, a period
dominated by Pierce's 12 points -- all of which came during the run for an
18-7 lead. The flurry helped Boston to a 31-15 lead after 12 minutes.
Allen's three-pointer ended an 11-2 flurry for a 55-29 cushion with 3:35 left
in the half, and it was 64-35 at intermission.
Even though the Pistons shot 12-of-17 in the third quarter, they still looked
up at the scoreboard through 36 minutes, trailing 89-70. The Celtics then put
the game away by scoring nine straight early in the fourth for a commanding
102-72 margin following a Finley jumper inside eight minutes remaining.
Game Notes
Boston has a better road record (22-12) than home mark (20-12) this
season...Detroit fell to 7-26 on the road...The Celtics won the season series,
2-1...Bynum was in the starting lineup again for Stuckey, who missed his fifth
straight game after collapsing on the bench during a loss in Cleveland on
March 5...Richard Hamilton had 14 points for Detroit...Boston converted 18
Detroit turnovers into 27 points.
<< Seton Hall women's hoops coach Mangina steps down
South Orange, NJ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Phyllis Mangina, head women's basketball
coach at Seton Hall, has resigned, the school announced Monday.
Mangina has spent the last 25 seasons in the position at her alma mater, and
compiled a 352-36
<< Seahawks release Grant, re-signed Tapp
Kirkland, WA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Seattle Seahawks released safety Deon
Grant and re-signed defensive end Darryl Tapp Monday.
Grant ranked among the team leaders in tackles in each of his three seasons
with the club, including a
<< Huselius paces Columbus over Oilers
Columbus, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Kristian Huselius played a huge role with a
goal and added three assists, as the Columbus Blue Jackets held on for a 5-3
win over the Edmonton Oilers at Nationwide Arena.
Antoine Vermette sealed the victo
<< Knicks finally win two straight, top struggling Sixers
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Danilo Gallinari finished with 21 points
to lead the New York Knicks to a 94-84 victory over the struggling
Philadelphia 76ers.
Rookie Toney Douglas added 20 points and seven assists for
<< Devils hold on to edge Bruins
Newark, NJ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Zach Parise scored the eventual game-winner late
in the first period, as the New Jersey Devils held off the Boston Bruins, 3-2,
at Prudential Center.
David Clarkson had a goal and an assist for the Devils, who
Nadal and Djokovic sneak into fourth round at Indian Wells >>
Indian Wells, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - World No. 2 Novak Djokovic barely survived
his third-round match Monday at the $4.5 million BNP Paribas Open, an ATP
World Tour Masters event, while world No. 3 Rafael Nadal cruised in two sets
against Croati
Rangers' Hamilton leaves game with hand injury >>
Surprise, AZ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Texas Rangers outfielder Josh Hamilton
exited Monday night's Cactus League game against the San Francisco Giants in
the third inning after taking a pitch off his left hand.
Giants pitcher Madison B
Brooks sinks winning shot as Rockets stop Nuggets >>
Houston, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Aaron Brooks scored 31 points and drained the
game-winning jumper with 2.9 seconds left to lift the Houston Rockets over the
Denver Nuggets, 125-123 at the Toyota Center.
Kevin Martin added 29 points and L
Boozer, Jazz dominate reeling Wizards >>
Salt Lake City, UT (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Carlos Boozer led the way with 23 points
and nine rebounds, and the Jazz sent the reeling Wizards to their eighth
consecutive defeat, 112-89, at EnergySolutions Arena.
Deron Williams added 17 poin
Red Wings gain three-point edge on Flames >>
Calgary, AB (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Tomas Holmstrom scored the game-winning goal
late in the third period, as the Detroit Red Wings edged the Calgary Flames,
2-1, in a battle between two playoff-hopeful teams at Pengrowth Saddledome.
Pavel
Problem with Bears?
Chicago, IL - New Chicago Bears quarterback Jay Cutler and star linebacker Brian Urlacher shot down reports of a rift, saying they're simply not true.
"There's nothing between us," Cutler said Thursday, when he reported to training camp. "I just want to put that to rest. There never has been anything between us."
Bet on NFL
Urlacher added: "I never said what I was quoted as saying and that's it. I have a lot of respect for Jay. I think Jay knows that."
Former Bears receiver Bobby Wade caused a stir when he told Minneapolis radio station KFAN-AM that Urlacher used a profanity while questioning Cutler's manhood during a conversation in Las Vegas last weekend. Wade, who now plays for the Vikings, said Urlacher used a profane version of the word "wimp" during the interview that had to be edited out.
go radio station WSCR-AM also reported that Urlacher had to be restrained from confronting Cutler during organized team activities.
"I wouldn't go face-to-face with Brian, anyway," Cutler said. "No, that's never happened. I've hung out with Brian away from the facility numerous times and we've always gotten along."
Urlacher, noting he was limited by a groin injury, denied the reports in an interview with the Chicago Tribune and did it again when he reported to camp.
"I didn't practice this summer, so I don't know how I would fight the guy if I didn't practice," Urlacher said. "We have no problems. I'm excited about football starting. I'm excited to have him as our quarterback."
Why would Wade say that?
"I don't know," Urlacher said. "Maybe he's jealous because we have a good quarterback now."
Cutler said the first he heard of any friction was when he got a call from Urlacher to clear the air. Urlacher, however, said he had already taken several calls from teammates wondering if the reports were true when Cutler phoned.
"He called me and I said, What's up (expletive), what are you doing?'" a grinning Urlacher said, uttering the same word he allegedly used with Wade. "It's so dumb to me that this even got to this point, but it did and then here we are."
better place after going 9-7 and missing the playoffs for the second straight year. They have a franchise quarterback for the first time in decades after acquiring Cutler in an offseason trade with Denver. But there are questions about his attitude following a fallout with Broncos management and new coach Josh McDaniels.
His critics include former Bears coach Mike Ditka and former Indianapolis and Tampa Bay coach Tony Dungy, one of Smith's mentors. Smith, however, said Cutler has been a model teammate so far while denying any animosity with Urlacher.
"There's no issue with Jay and Brian, except Brian and Jay are both excited about being teammates for our club this year," coach Lovie Smith said. "No more than that. We can't spend a whole lot of time on something that isn't true. I have talked to the players. Whenever something comes out, you have to address it, but it's a non-issue."
In some ways, Cutler is getting a second chance in Chicago, an opportunity to repair his reputation.
Smith said another quarterback - Michael Vick - deserves one, although he doesn't see it happening with the Bears, who lack an experienced backup. The former Atlanta Falcons star, who served a 23-month sentence for running a dogfighting ring, said Thursday he is getting close to signing with a pro football team.
"A second chance, like everyone in society who has paid their debt to society," Smith said. "He deserves a second chance. As far as we're concerned, we like this team that we have right now."
Particularly the new quarterback.
"Me and Brian have been on a good relationship since I've been here, and I expect it to continue that way," Cutler said.
Bet on NFL
Mysportsbook.com online online sportsbook accepts Visa & Mastercard
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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Bonds nearly hits HR 751, SF wins
4 and drove in
a pair of runs, and Barry Bonds nearly hit homer No. 751 as San Francisco beat
1, in the middle contest of three at AT&T Park.
6) allowed five hits and one run over 6 2/3 innings, fanning
eight and walking three.
game slide.
Bonds, who came within five homers of Hank Aaron's record on Friday, went
1 with three walks, an RBI double and scored twice. The double ...
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