Seahawks In Search of Sandbags to Stem the Rising Tide
Football Betting Lines
10/31/2006 -
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - If you're a card-carrying pessimist who also happens to
follow the Seattle Seahawks, then congratulations. You must be in your element
right about now.
What is going wrong with the reigning NFC Champs? Let us count the ways:
-Sunday's 35-28 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs dropped the Seahawks to 1-3
since running back Shaun Alexander went down with a cracked bone in his left
foot.
-Since going into the half ahead of the Giants, 35-3, Seattle has been
outscored by a composite of 158 to 84 over its last four-and-a-half games.
-In the past two weeks, the Seattle defense has allowed career performances
from a running back that had started eight games in four NFL seasons coming
into 2006 (Chester Taylor) and a 33-year-old journeyman quarterback who almost
didn't play against them because of a groin injury (Damon Huard).
-Alexander is out for at least one more week, and starting quarterback Matt
Hasselbeck will be absent for at least another two, robbing the team of its
best two offensive weapons.
-The similarly 4-3 Rams come to the Emerald City in two weeks, at which point
they'll likely be in position to seize control of the NFC West race.
Pretty harrowing stuff, though because for every point there is a counter-
point, we offer the projected musings of the glass-half-full types:
-The backup quarterback, Seneca Wallace, was far from terrible against the
Chiefs, keeping his team in the game in a difficult environment and throwing a
trio of touchdown passes in his first career start.
-Seahawks head coach Mike Holmgren projected that Alexander will be back in
time for the all-important date with St. Louis, and other wounded warriors
such as guard Floyd "Pork Chop" Womack (sprained left knee) and wide
receiver Bobby Engram (thyroid condition) should return as well.
-The secondary has struggled, but there is still tremendous talent on defense,
beginning with omnipresent outside linebacker Julian Peterson.
-The schedule gets easier, beginning with Monday night's home date with the
Raiders. Six of Seattle's final nine opponents have losing records: Oakland
(2-5), San Francisco twice (2-5), Green Bay (3-4), Arizona (1-7), and Tampa
Bay (2-5).
As for Holmgren's point of view, it remains positive because, well, what other
approach can a head coach take with more than two months left in the season?
"I don't know what more we can do but keep battling, and we're going to keep
battling," said Holmgren after Sunday's loss. "We'll keep talking about it. If
we can make some changes, we will. If you can't make changes, sometimes you
can't make changes. Then you've got to coach them better and get them to be
more aware, and technically more sound.
"I just told the guys, this is a long season, we're just starting here. We've
played seven games and we've got more games to play than we've played, so
we've got to get better."
WALLACE WATCH
Wallace's play in his first NFL start probably didn't make Hasselbeck fear for
his job to any significant degree, but it did leave the Seahawks confident
that they could win with the 5-foot-11 signal-caller under center.
Wallace completed 15-of-30 passes for 198 yards with three touchdowns and a
pair of interceptions, also rushing for 18 yards and rallying Seattle from a
27-14 deficit to take a 28-27 lead on a 49-yard touchdown pass to Darrell
Jackson with 6:30 to play. The fourth-year-pro ran out of magic on the team's
final drive, when he could advance Seattle no further than the Kansas City 41
and threw an ill-advised short pass to fullback Mack Strong on 4th-and-15.
"I thought he did a great job," said Holmgren. "He misfired a couple of times,
but [Arrowhead] is a difficult stadium to play in. Their fans are tremendous.
For a young guy in his first start, I think he handled most things pretty
well.
"The outcome of this game, in a negative fashion, wasn't because of Seneca
Wallace. He kept us in it, and I think given the circumstances he did a fine
job."
DEFENSE OFFENSIVE
Sunday's loss had much to do with the work of a defense that allowed the
Chiefs to pile up 499 yards of total offense, including a career-high 312
passing yards from Huard and a 155-yard, three-touchdown day from Kansas City
running back Larry Johnson.
The Seahawks allowed 6.3 yards per offensive play, surrendered 30 first downs,
and were dominated in time of possession, 42:15 to 17:45.
Seattle was particularly clueless against the Kansas City passing attack,
allowing wideout Eddie Kennison to log 132 yards through the air (his first
100-yard game of the season) and tight end Tony Gonzales to go over 100 as
well. Compounding the deficiencies of the secondary was a pass rush that had
just one sack all day, that going to Peterson midway through the first
quarter.
When asked about the play of the defense after the game, Holmgren replied
tersely, "I thought we would have played these guys a little bit better."
The Hawks now rank 28th in the 32-team league in both passing defense (237.3
yards per game) and scoring defense (25.3 points per game).
CH-CH-CHANGES
Seattle's starting lineup featured a different look on Sunday, with strong
safety Michael Boulware benched for his shaky play against Minnesota in Week 7
and right tackle Sean Locklear out of the game while serving a one-game NFL
suspension stemming from a domestic violence arrest last Jan. 15th. Jordan
Babineaux started in place of Boulware, registering a minimal impact with five
tackles, while ex-Patriot Tom Ashworth replaced Locklear.
Locklear should return this week, while Womack should also be back after
missing the past five games. Chris Spencer and Rob Sims both played left guard
in Womack's place, with mixed returns, but it is possible that the team could
stick with the former first-round pick Spencer and keep Womack on the bench.
Of Spencer and Sims, Holmgren said, "I think they did OK. Now 'Chop' comes
back this week. We'll look at how these two young 'uns played and then
make a decision."
ALEXANDER UPDATE
On Monday, Holmgren broke the disappointing news (to everyone but the Oakland Raiders and perhaps the St. Louis Rams) that Alexander would miss his fifth
straight game due to injury. The cracked bone in the Pro Bowl running back's
fourth left metatarsal is healing, but Alexander has not yet been cleared for
game action.
"I'm a little disappointed he can't play this week, certainly," said Holmgren.
"But we've been playing without him for a while, so it's not that big a
shock," he added.
Backup Maurice Morris' struggles continued on Sunday, when he carried 12 times
for just 25 yards. Morris now has 183 yards on 63 attempts (2.9 yards per
carry) without a touchdown in his four starts.
If he is able to return against the Rams on Nov. 12th, Alexander (187 yards)
would need to average 101.6 yards per game over the second half in order to
record his sixth consecutive 1,000-yard season. The three-time Pro Bowler
averaged 93.8 yards per game between 2001 and 2005.
STEVENS SIGHTING
A bright spot in the Seahawks' loss to the Chiefs was the work of tight end
Jerramy Stevens, who saw his first extensive action since undergoing offseason
knee surgery. The former first-round pick caught three passes for 20 yards,
including a two-yard TD catch from Wallace with 4:55 to play in the second
quarter.
The ex-University of Washington standout had the best season of his career in
2005, catching 45 passes for 554 yards and five touchdowns. The No. 28 overall
pick in the 2002 Draft scored Seattle's only touchdown in Super Bowl XL,
though he also fell victim to a couple of key drops in the contest.
UP NEXT: OAKLAND
Oakland, which has followed up an 0-5 start with consecutive wins over the
Cardinals and Steelers, will travel to Qwest Field on Monday night.
The Raiders hold a 27-22 advantage in their all-time regular season series
with the Seahawks, including a 31-17 home victory when the teams last met, in
2002. The Hawks have won the last three matchups between the clubs played in
Seattle, including a 34-27 decision in the last such matchup, in 2001.
Oakland's most recent win in Seattle took place in 1998, at the Kingdome.
The Seahawks and Raiders met twice a year when both resided in the AFC West,
from 1978 through 2001.
In addition to the regular season series, the franchises have met twice in
postseason play, splitting a pair of meetings. The then-Los Angeles Raiders
were 30-14 winners in the 1983 AFC Championship at the Coliseum, while Seattle
returned the favor with a 13-7 home victory in an AFC First-Round Playoff the
next year. Prior to last season's run to the Super Bowl, the 1984 game had
marked the Seahawks' most recent postseason victory.
Oakland head coach Art Shell was 9-2 against the Seahawks during his first
tenure with the franchise (1989-94). Holmgren is 4-4 in his career against the
Raiders, including 3-4 since coming to Seattle in 1999. The only head-to-head
matchup between Holmgren and Shell occurred in 1993, a 28-0 victory for
Holmgren's Packers at Lambeau Field.
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Betting the NFL preseason
Rule No. 1 in the gamblers' handbook states, "Avoid sports betting on meaningless games."
When you're drowning in a sea of baseball monotony, however, things change. Even a hint of pro football betting can persuade the most disciplined bettor to break a few rules.
The NFL preseason is around the corner, with a tempting Hall of Fame match kicking off on Sunday. But bettors must stay vigilant. Wagering on NFL exhibition games is an entirely different beast than the regular season. Most fans don't recognize the players on the field because starters get as much action in August as Warcraft fans get on Prom night.
The only certainty about the NFL this time of year is uncertainty – and yet there are some who say betting in August can be a gold mine.
“I actually feel the NFL preseason presents solid profit opportunities for sharp bettors and handicappers,” Sports Expert Steve Merril explains. “My experience has been that the sportsbooks fear the preseason, which is evident by lower limits and massive moves.”
The line moves are attributed to the limited knowledge available regarding playing-time distribution. One team’s top unit out on the field for one more series has an impact on the pointspread. Setting lines in the preseason often is a shot in the dark.
“We base the betting lines mostly on public perception,” Pete Korner, founder of the Sports Club in Las Vegas, says. “It’s very tough to predict, almost a guessing game.”
The preseason is all about figuring out who’s in and for how long.
“It becomes a race between bettors and oddsmakers to find out how long the quarterbacks are going to stay in,” Korner admits. “If a sharp gets the information first, he could exploit an early line. I’m a full believer in moving the line in the preseason if the books find out something late in the week.”
Determining what each team’s motive is can help bettors handicap. To do this you must pay close attention to the philosophies head coaches employ in exhibition play.
“You need to know what a coach is trying to accomplish,” says Covers Expert Bryan Leonard. “Sometimes a new coach will want to instill a winning attitude. Others just want to make sure their starters don’t get hurt."
So how do you distinguish who’s playing scared and who’s playing for keeps?
“Head coaches on the hot seat or new coaches trying to implement a winning attitude usually try harder to win in the preseason,” Merril says.
Cleveland Browns head coach Romeo Crennel fits this criteria. He’s entering his third season as the sideline boss and has yet to lead the Browns to more than six wins.
Cleveland is an enticing bet as well because of the unresolved quarterback situation. General manager Phil Savage sacrificed the Browns’ first-round pick in next year’s draft for Brady Quinn, but the former Notre Dame quarterback hasn’t signed or reported to training camp yet.
Charlie Frye and Derek Anderson split time at QB last season and it looks like either player (or even Quinn) could be the opening-day starter.
“If a team has quarterback depth and the pecking order hasn’t been decided, it’s a big advantage,” Leonard says.
Even in the third week of the preseason when starters generally play the most, the final outcome of the game is in the hands of fringe players. A team's talent, all the way down to the last man on the roster, is something to consider.
The New England Patriots have long been considered one of the deeper teams in the NFL and coach Bill Belichick has said in the past he’s unafraid of stars getting hurt in games with nothing on the line. He shocked his colleagues in 2003 by playing some of his starters on special teams in the preseason.
“We want to have the team ready to play a tough, physical game and preparation has to go into that and I imagine a certain amount of injuries go with it,” Belichick told the Providence Journal in August 2003.
Bettors can only hope to find more teams that share the Pats' business-like approach to the preseason (New England is 17-9-3 against the spread since 2000) and take advantage of teams who detest the exhibition schedule.
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